Gold & Bitcoin Stay Above the Fray

Markets Start to Price in the Scars of Tariff Shock

TlDr: Tariff fallout is leaving lasting scars across markets. Volatility is up, visibility is down, and the search for alternatives—like gold and Bitcoin—is gaining steam.

Markets Are Flying Blind

Equity and credit investors are operating in the dark. Companies are pulling guidance. EPS estimates are still being revised.

The chaos from the U.S. tariff shift has:

• Triggered 11% intraday swings in the S&P 500

• Sparked rate moves not seen outside of periods of Fed crisis intervention

• Blown out the gap between consensus GDP estimates and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model

The result: price discovery in free-fall.

Déjà Vu: The Crisis Playbook Reopens

In the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, it took weeks for policymakers to understand the scale of the threat. TARP wasn’t passed until October 3rd, weeks after Lehman’s bankruptcy.

But that wasn’t enough. On October 14th, Treasury launched the $1T Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program (TLGP), backstopping corporate debt like a pseudo-GSE.

We are just nine days into the “Post-Liberation Day” digestion. And yet, signs of systemic stress are already flashing.

Tight Tape, Wild Underneath

While the S&P 500 is holding a tight band this morning (±1%), a violent undercurrent is developing:

• U.S. 10Y yield: +18bps today to as high as 4.58%

• Weekly surge: +71bps from last Friday’s 3.85% low

This kind of rate shock is not normal. And the muted equity response recalls Lehman’s immediate aftermath—when market reaction lagged reality.

Commodities Are Sounding the Alarm

Commodities are flashing a very different signal: