Backroom Politics Confuses Markets

The Case for Opting Out

“The world is full of absurdities, but when they start to move the markets, it’s time to get out of the way.” - Jim Rogers

TL;Dr

Historic bond market volatility ignited the unwind of a leveraged basis trade, driving the MOVE Index to worrying levels, scaring the tariff out of the Trump administration. But yesterday’s rally is a warning sign, not a sign of relief.

Yesterday’s face-melting rally in U.S. equities—a year’s worth of gains in a day—was less a vote of confidence and more a spasm of manipulated relief.

One reason U.S. futures are pointing to a down -2% to 2.5% decline despite a weaker headline CPI print (2.8% v 3.0% expected).

The real story isn’t that stocks soared. It’s why they did—and what that reveals about the fragility of the current market regime. The better path? Bitcoin and decentralized rails that don’t rely on a debt-soaked system driving headline roulette.

A Year's Gain in a Day Is Not Bullish—It's Broken

The S&P 500 and NASDAQ posted one-day returns that typically take 12 months to realize. That’s not healthy price discovery. That’s reflexive panic driven by policy pivots and liquidity traps.

The Bond Market Nearly Broke—Again

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reportedly pressed Trump to back off aggressive tariffs to avoid a full-blown funding crisis. The government wasn’t worried about the $10T in refinancing needed over the next year—it was worried about making payroll today.

Trading U.S. Equities? Good Luck

Unless you had a macro playbook tied to Trump’s Truth Social posts, you missed the move. Even relative winners like TSLA (+22.6%) were likely inaccessible due to shallow liquidity. According to Eric Balchunas, ETFs made up more than 40% of all trading—meaning investors weren’t making targeted bets, they were just grabbing exposure in bulk.

Underscoring the long term trend of low cost firms winning the passive game, Vanguard’s VOO ETF, saw $10B in flows over the past 5 days. VOO eclipsed the SPY ETF in terms of AUM earlier this year.

Bitcoin: No Debt, No Drama

Unlike the U.S. Treasury, Bitcoin doesn't have a refinancing cliff or tariff-induced volatility. It operates transparently, 24/7, without a Powell, a Bessent, or a Xi. When paired with LLM-powered agentic tools, Bitcoin’s decentralized data and financial rails offer investors a cleaner, more scalable way to allocate capital.